← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miles
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 43% | 52% | 2.20 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Walsall win | 27% | 21% | 3.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Walsall +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Cody Johnson · Stockport |
| 24' | ⚽ | Danny Johnson · Walsall |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ryan Stirk · Walsall |
| 49' | 🟨 | Freddie Draper · Walsall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Isaac Hutchinson · Walsall |
| 67' | 🟨 | Fraser Horsfall · Stockport |
| 70' | 🟨 | Louie Barry · Stockport |
| 75' | 🟨 | Macauley Southam · Stockport |
| 79' | ⚽ | Aramide Oteh · Walsall |
| 82' | 🟨 | Isaac Olaofe · Stockport |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Poundland Bescot Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Ryan Rydel · Stockport |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 133.00 | 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1260.47 | 1412.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.37 | 7.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | — |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 27.59 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |