← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Jackson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 52% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Crewe win | 22% | 20% | 4.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Crewe −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jack Powell · Crewe |
| 15' | 🟨 | Rio Adebisi · Crewe |
| 20' | 🟨 | Zac Williams · Crewe |
| 21' | ⚽ | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Swindon |
| 23' | 🟨 | Conor Thomas · Crewe |
| 26' | 🟨 | George McEachran · Swindon |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jake Young · Swindon |
| 60' | ⚽ | Zac Williams · Crewe |
| 67' | 🟨 | Christopher Long · Crewe |
| 82' | 🟨 | Murphy Cooper · Swindon |
| 85' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| Rio Adebisi · Crewe |
| 87' | 🟨 | Frazer Blake-Tracy · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Brewitt · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey Davies · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 103.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1493.57 | 1484.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.66 | 9.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | — | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |