← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 56% | 49% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.16 | value: +14% |
| Grimsby win | 20% | 24% | 5.00 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Grimsby −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Matt Palmer · Notts County |
| 17' | ⚽ | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 24' | 🟨 | Anthony Driscoll-Glennon · Grimsby |
| 25' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 34' | 🟨 | Harry Clifton · Grimsby |
| 40' | ⚽ | John Bostock · Notts County |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aaron Nemane · Notts County |
| 45' | ⚽ | Harry Clifton · Grimsby |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jodi Jones · Notts County |
| 61' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 64' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| 🟨 |
| Kamil Conteh · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobi Adebayo-Rowling · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aidan Stone · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 437.00 | 984.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1378.61 | 1441.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.66 | -0.85 |
| eye test v1 | — | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | — | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | — | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | — | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | — | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | — | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | — | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | — | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | — | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |