← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County win | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Newport County −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Sebastian Palmer-Houlden · Newport County |
| 14' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Richard Wood · Newport County |
| 24' | 🟨 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 30' | 🟨 | George Broadbent · Doncaster |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tom Anderson · Doncaster |
| 49' | ⚽ | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 61' | 🟨 | Scot Bennett · Newport County |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tyler Roberts · Doncaster |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tommy Rowe · Doncaster |
| 74' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 🟨 |
| Adam Lewis · Newport County |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ayodeji Sotona · Doncaster |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ryan Delaney · Newport County |
| 85' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 315.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1325.15 | 1221.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.75 | -25.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 27.93 |
| state index | -0.47 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.61 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |