β EFL League Two 2023-24 Β· Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 55% | 41% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.82 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 20% | 35% | 5.04 | value: +77% β |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons β0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Wrexham β0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +7% |
| Under | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | β½ (og) | Eoghan O'Connell Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 10' | β½ | Mohamed Eisa Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 11' | π¨ | Mohamed Eisa Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 23' | π¨ | Elliot Lee Β· Wrexham |
| 24' | π¨ | Eoghan O'Connell Β· Wrexham |
| 42' | β½ | Jacob Mendy Β· Wrexham |
| 51' | β½ | Jonathan Leko Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 64' | β½ | Jonathan Leko Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 68' | π¨ | Cameron Norman Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 82' | β½ | Jordan Davies Β· Wrexham |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | β | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | β | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | β | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | β | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | STΕK Cae Ras |
| 84' |
| π¨ |
| Craig MacGillivray Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | β½ | Daniel Harvie Β· Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | β½ | Anthony Forde Β· Wrexham |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 765.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1294.01 | 1435.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | -17.75 |
| eye test v1 | β | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | β | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | β | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | β | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | β | 53.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | β | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | β | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | β | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | β | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | β | 4.80 |
| squad age | β | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | β | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | β | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | β | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | β | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |