← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe win | 35% | 34% | 2.73 | fair |
| Walsall win | 35% | 34% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Walsall +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Adam Mayor · Morecambe |
| 34' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Morecambe |
| 37' | 🟨 | Joe Riley · Walsall |
| 38' | 🟨 | Yann Songo'o · Morecambe |
| 38' | ⚽ | Danny Johnson · Walsall |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · Walsall |
| 48' | 🟨 | John Joshua Mckiernan · Morecambe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Isaac Hutchinson · Walsall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Slew · Morecambe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacob Bedeau · Morecambe |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mazuma Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Farrend Rawson · Morecambe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Johnson · Walsall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Farrend Rawson · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 550.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1536.79 | 1427.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.67 | -25.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -3.74 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -3.05 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |