← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 49% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +5% |
| Crawley Town win | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Bradford +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.06 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Kellan Gordon · Crawley Town |
| 12' | 🟨 | Ciaran Kelly · Bradford |
| 14' | ⚽ | Will Wright · Crawley Town |
| 15' | 🟨 | Liam Kelly · Crawley Town |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ronan Darcy · Crawley Town |
| 31' | 🟨 | Daniel Oyegoke · Bradford |
| 41' | 🟨 | Daniel Oyegoke · Bradford |
| 41' | 🟥 | Daniel Oyegoke · Bradford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Brad Halliday · Bradford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dion Conroy · Crawley Town |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Henry · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 216.00 | 550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1410.81 | 1560.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.24 | -13.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |