← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 26% | 28% | 3.79 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Doncaster +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 39% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Mickey Demetriou · Doncaster |
| 17' | 🟨 | Aaron Lewis · Newport County |
| 30' | 🟨 | Cameron Norman · Newport County |
| 35' | 🟨 | Liam Ravenhill · Doncaster |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nathan Moriah-Welsh · Newport County |
| 60' | 🟨 | Will Evans · Newport County |
| 64' | ⚽ | Priestley Farquharson · Newport County |
| 71' | ⚽ | Aaron Wildig · Newport County |
| 79' | ⚽ | Cameron Norman · Newport County |
| 89' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 203.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1241.95 | 1330.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.34 | 6.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 52.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 51.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | -2.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.54 | 24.80 |
| state index | -1.76 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |