← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 38% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
| Swindon win | 32% | 28% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Swindon +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Aaron Pierre · AFC Wimbledon |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke Jephcott · Swindon |
| 18' | ⚽ | Jacob Wakeling · Swindon |
| 24' | 🟨 | Diallang Jaiyesimi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 28' | 🟨 | Remeao Hutton · Swindon |
| 32' | ⚽ | Luke Jephcott · Swindon |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marcel Lavinier · Swindon |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jonathan Williams · Swindon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ethan Chislett · AFC Wimbledon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Saidou Khan · Swindon |
| 61' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Thomas Clayton · Swindon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Aaron Pierre · AFC Wimbledon |
| 82' | 🟨 | George Marsh · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Aaron Pierre · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ronan Darcy · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 356.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1265.68 | 1325.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.07 | -26.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| league points | 47.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.99 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 24.57 |
| state index | -1.00 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |