← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Tue, Apr 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 36% | 39% | 2.74 | value: +6% |
| Newport County win | 34% | 30% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Newport County +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 40% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Scot Bennett · Newport County |
| 24' | ⚽ | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 25' | 🟨 | Elliott Hewitt · Mansfield |
| 29' | 🟨 | Mickey Demetriou · Newport County |
| 38' | 🟨 | James Perch · Mansfield |
| 53' | 🟨 | Priestley Farquharson · Newport County |
| 73' | ⚽ | James Gale · Mansfield |
| 86' | ⚽ | Aaron Wildig · Newport County |
| 89' | 🟨 | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Mansfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason Law · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| coach days | 199.00 | 898.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1340.55 | 1412.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.77 | 11.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 50.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.86 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 29.96 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.05 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |