← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 40% | 43% | 2.41 | value: +5% |
| Swindon win | 32% | 25% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.44 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mansfield +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Rushian Hepburn-Murphy · Swindon |
| 13' | ⚽ | Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
| 20' | 🟨 | Tom Brewitt · Swindon |
| 22' | 🟨 | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 32' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 33' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 41' | 🟨 | Elliott Hewitt · Mansfield |
| 57' | 🟨 | Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
| 65' | ⚽ | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jonathan Williams · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| coach days | 96.00 | 887.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1339.78 | 1406.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.95 | -6.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 51.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.59 | 30.00 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |