← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 36% | 29% | 2.70 | fair |
| Northampton win | 32% | 43% | 3.00 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Northampton +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 57% | 1.47 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 43% | 2.80 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Louis Appéré · Northampton |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jon McCracken · Stevenage |
| 19' | 🟨 | Dean Campbell · Stevenage |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
| 83' | 🟨 | William Hondermarck · Northampton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tete Yengi · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Akinwale Odimayo · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 789.00 | 396.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 4.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1445.49 | 1362.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.23 | -18.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 69.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 59.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 28.13 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |