← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 44% | 39% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
| Walsall win | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Walsall −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 60% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 40% | 2.57 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Bryn Morris · Grimsby |
| 38' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · Walsall |
| 49' | 🟨 | Niall Maher · Grimsby |
| 50' | ⚽ | Donervon Daniels · Walsall |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hayden White · Walsall |
| 60' | 🟨 | Owen Evans · Walsall |
| 73' | 🟨 | Andy Smith · Grimsby |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bryn Morris · Grimsby |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kieran Green · Grimsby |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daniel Amos · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| Donervon Daniels · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 844.00 | 417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1447.58 | 1480.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.81 | -9.86 |
| eye test v1 | -1.58 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 46.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.01 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |