← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Boyeson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 43% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 28% | 30% | 3.46 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Tranmere −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Harvey Saunders · Tranmere |
| 39' | 🟨 | Joel Mumbongo · Tranmere |
| 51' | 🟨 | Samson Tovide · Colchester |
| 56' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Tranmere |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alex Newby · Colchester |
| 59' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joe Murphy · Tranmere |
| 64' | 🟨 | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Tranmere |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Noah Chilvers · Colchester |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
| 75' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ethan Bristow · Tranmere |
| 76' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Colchester |
| 86' | 🟨 | Arthur Read · Colchester |
| 89' | 🟨 | Harvey Saunders · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fiacre Kelleher · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1258.43 | 1309.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.57 | -20.19 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.61 | 26.08 |
| state index | -1.34 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |