← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Madden
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 36% | 40% | 2.76 | value: +11% |
| Rochdale win | 35% | 29% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rochdale +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Swindon +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 14' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 22' | ⚽ | Devante Rodney · Rochdale |
| 25' | ⚽ | Danny Lloyd · Rochdale |
| 63' | 🟨 | Owen Dodgson · Rochdale |
| 71' | ⚽ | Abraham Odoh · Rochdale |
| 74' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 79' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toby Mullarkey · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Clayton · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rochdale | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Crown Oil Arena |
| Ian Henderson · Rochdale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 17.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1362.93 | 1529.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.03 | 13.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |