← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Tue, Mar 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sutton win | 59% | 54% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 4.08 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 16% | 26% | 6.00 | value: +58% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crawley Town −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Sutton −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 47% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 53% | 1.97 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | VBS Community Stadium |