← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Tue, Feb 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 47% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 24% | 27% | 4.16 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Stevenage +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 60% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Stevenage |
| 53' | 🟨 | George Marsh · AFC Wimbledon |
| 55' | ⚽ | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 60' | 🟨 | Paul Kalambayi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dan Sweeney · Stevenage |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Kasey McAteer · Stevenage |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Stevenage |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Luke Norris · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 303.00 | 364.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1520.06 | 1525.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.65 | -40.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 42.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 53.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.83 | -2.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |