← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Tue, Feb 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 59% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.70 | fair |
| Rochdale win | 15% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rochdale −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 51% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 49% | 2.40 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand