← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 53% | 52% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +15% |
| Bradford win | 20% | 16% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Bradford −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Bradford |
| 26' | ⚽ | Carl Piergianni · Stevenage |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sam Stubbs · Bradford |
| 49' | ⚽ | Matt Derbyshire · Bradford |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Andy Cook · Bradford |
| 73' | ⚽ | Dan Sweeney · Stevenage |
| 74' | 🟨 | Brad Halliday · Bradford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thierry Nevers · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ciaran Kelly · Bradford |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Lamex Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 347.00 |
| 375.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1565.98 | 1511.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.89 | -3.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 56.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.65 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |