← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Haines
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 43% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.30 | value: +4% |
| Hartlepool win | 28% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hartlepool +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 55% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Oliver Finney · Hartlepool |
| 18' | ⚽ | David Ajiboye · Sutton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Lee Angol · Sutton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Craig Eastmond · Sutton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Craig Eastmond · Sutton |
| 37' | 🟥 | Craig Eastmond · Sutton |
| 43' | ⚽ | Daniel Kemp · Hartlepool |
| 45' | ⚽ | Daniel Dodds · Hartlepool |
| 58' | 🟨 | Omar Bugiel · Sutton |
| 73' | 🟨 | David Ferguson · Hartlepool |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hartlepool | Sutton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Suit Direct Stadium |
| Joe Kizzi · Sutton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 163.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1355.83 | 1504.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.35 | 10.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 25.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 56.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |