← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 46% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
| Crewe win | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −0.25 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Crewe −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Over | 49% | 43% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Dom Telford · Crawley Town |
| 13' | 🟨 | Ludwig Francillette · Crawley Town |
| 15' | 🟨 | Sean Robertson · Crewe |
| 19' | ⚽ (og) | Luke Offord · Crawley Town |
| 51' | ⚽ | Daniel Agyei · Crewe |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Agyei · Crewe |
| 74' | 🟨 | Daniel Agyei · Crewe |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sean Robertson · Crewe |
| 85' | 🟥 | Sean Robertson · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rod McDonald · Crewe |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Ben Gladwin · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 41.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1410.75 | 1459.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.96 | -37.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |