← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 50% | 54% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 22% | 21% | 4.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Gillingham −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 54% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Jonathan Williams · Swindon |
| 3' | ⚽ | Timothée Dieng · Gillingham |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Will Wright · Gillingham |
| 13' | ⚽ | Tom Nichols · Gillingham |
| 24' | 🟨 | Timothée Dieng · Gillingham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Saidou Khan · Swindon |
| 44' | 🟨 | Tom Nichols · Gillingham |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ciaran Brennan · Swindon |
| 78' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Swindon |
| 81' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| 🟨 |
| Saidou Khan · Swindon |
| 81' | 🟥 | Saidou Khan · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 27.00 | 392.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1561.29 | 1446.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.18 | 2.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 41.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 53.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -2.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |