← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stevenage win | 46% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Leyton Orient win | 24% | 22% | 4.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Stevenage −0.5 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 34% | 2.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand