← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Tue, Nov 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 44% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.25 | value: +13% |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 27% | 25% | 3.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ayoub Assal · AFC Wimbledon |
| 21' | 🟨 | Thomas James · Leyton Orient |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · AFC Wimbledon |
| 35' | ⚽ | Harry Pell · AFC Wimbledon |
| 41' | 🟨 | Aaron Drinan · Leyton Orient |
| 44' | 🟨 | Edmond-Paris Maghoma · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · Leyton Orient |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ayoub Assal · AFC Wimbledon |
| 73' | 🟨 | George Marsh · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Moncur · Leyton Orient |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Omar Beckles · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 191.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1497.15 | 1587.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.11 | 28.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| league points | 19.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 10.24 | 10.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |