← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 50% | 47% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.66 | fair |
| Swindon win | 23% | 28% | 4.35 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Swindon −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.94 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Kellan Gordon · Mansfield |
| 7' | ⚽ | Jonathan Williams · Swindon |
| 30' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Mansfield |
| 31' | 🟨 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jonathan Williams · Swindon |
| 38' | 🟨 | George Maris · Mansfield |
| 51' | ⚽ | Luke Jephcott · Swindon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 59' | 🟥 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christy Pym · Mansfield |
| 68' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 11 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Ronan Darcy · Swindon |
| 70' | 🟨 | John-Joe O'Toole · Mansfield |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jonathan Williams · Swindon |
| 77' | 🟨 | Luke Jephcott · Swindon |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Ben Gladwin · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 727.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1425.59 | 1409.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.76 | -0.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |