← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 47% | 56% | 2.06 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 26% | 18% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town +0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Mansfield +0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Ashley Nadesan · Crawley Town |
| 13' | ⚽ | Tom Nichols · Crawley Town |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 27' | ⚽ | George Lapslie · Mansfield |
| 29' | 🟨 | Travis Johnson · Crawley Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nick Tsaroulla · Crawley Town |
| 46' | ⚽ | Ashley Nadesan · Crawley Town |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dion Conroy · Crawley Town |
| 88' | 🟨 | David Robson · Crawley Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| coach days | 113.00 | 720.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1401.55 | 1602.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.43 | 31.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |