← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 38% | 35% | 2.54 | fair |
| Carlisle win | 32% | 36% | 3.06 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Carlisle +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 62% | 1.66 | value: +3% |
| Over | 42% | 38% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient |
| 8' | 🟨 | Rob Hunt · Leyton Orient |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ryan Edmondson · Carlisle |
| 17' | ⚽ | Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient |
| 36' | 🟥 | Ryan Edmondson · Carlisle |
| 50' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Leyton Orient |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jordan Gibson · Carlisle |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jordan Gibson · Carlisle |
| 70' | 🟨 | Aaron Drinan · Leyton Orient |
| 72' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| 🟨 |
| Paul Huntington · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jayden Harris · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lawrence Vigouroux · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 263.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1501.12 | 1559.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.66 | 5.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.73 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |