← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 54% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 20% | 22% | 5.01 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Stockport −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Harry Clifton · Grimsby |
| 30' | ⚽ | Gavan Holohan · Grimsby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kieran Green · Grimsby |
| 41' | ⚽ | Paddy Madden · Stockport |
| 55' | 🟨 | Anthony Driscoll-Glennon · Grimsby |
| 57' | 🟨 | Paddy Madden · Stockport |
| 67' | 🟨 | Michee Efete · Grimsby |
| 72' | 🟥 | Callum Camps · Stockport |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Crocombe · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Taylor · Grimsby |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stockport | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Edgeley Park |
| ⚽ |
| Alex Hunt · Grimsby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 348.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1228.89 | 1291.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.38 | 10.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 27.42 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |