← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Sep 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 40% | 48% | 2.47 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.00 | fair |
| Barrow win | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Northampton −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 65% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 35% | 2.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 13' | ⚽ | Josh Gordon · Barrow |
| 26' | 🟨 | Sam Foley · Barrow |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Gordon · Barrow |
| 46' | ⚽ | Kieron Bowie · Northampton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Tyler Magloire · Northampton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marc Leonard · Northampton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tom White · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyler Magloire · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| Ali Koiki · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Brough · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 579.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1586.21 | 1454.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.37 | 36.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 60.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |