← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 63% | 61% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.16 | fair |
| Hartlepool win | 13% | 17% | 7.29 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Hartlepool −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Euan Murray · Hartlepool |
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | George Moncur · Leyton Orient |
| 32' | ⚽ | Wesley McDonald · Hartlepool |
| 38' | ⚽ | Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient |
| 40' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · Leyton Orient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Umerah · Hartlepool |
| 48' | ⚽ | Paul Smyth · Leyton Orient |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Umerah · Hartlepool |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tom Crawford · Hartlepool |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ruel Sotiriou · Leyton Orient |
| 78' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Hartlepool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| 🟨 |
| Rob Hunt · Leyton Orient |
| 89' | 🟨 | Charlie Kelman · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 179.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1527.32 | 1355.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.77 | -22.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.69 | -1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |