← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Tue, Aug 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 59% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.15 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 17% | 16% | 5.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Mansfield −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Josh Davison · AFC Wimbledon |
| 16' | ⚽ | Josh Davison · AFC Wimbledon |
| 28' | 🟨 | George Marsh · AFC Wimbledon |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jack Currie · AFC Wimbledon |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 40' | ⚽ | George Lapslie · Mansfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lee Brown · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | 🟥 | Chris Gunter · AFC Wimbledon |
| 56' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| George Maris · Mansfield |
| 70' | ⚽ | Riley Harbottle · Mansfield |
| 82' | 🟨 | Isaac Ogundere · AFC Wimbledon |
| 87' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 653.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1547.47 | 1556.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.34 | 12.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 74.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.33 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.67 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |