← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Jul 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stockport win | 62% | 53% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Barrow win | 15% | 26% | 6.72 | value: +76% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stockport −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Barrow −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.02 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand