← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Joyce
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs win | 52% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Rochdale win | 21% | 28% | 4.75 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Rochdale +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 24 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.