← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Tue, Apr 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 42% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 31% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Swindon −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 1.97 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Udoka Godwin-Malife · Forest Green |
| 15' | ⚽ | Louie Barry · Swindon |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ellis Iandolo · Swindon |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jack Payne · Swindon |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ellis Iandolo · Swindon |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jonathan Williams · Swindon |
| 53' | 🟥 | Ellis Iandolo · Swindon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Forest Green |
| 63' | 🟨 | Josh March · Forest Green |
| 69' | ⚽ | Josh March · Forest Green |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| 🟨 |
| Jake Young · Forest Green |
| 85' | 🟨 | Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Payne · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 299.00 | 360.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1383.31 | 1433.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.81 | -17.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 68.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 25.68 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |