← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Handley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 39% | 35% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.08 | value: +9% |
| Leyton Orient win | 29% | 30% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Northampton +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 36% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 38' | ⚽ | Josh Eppiah · Northampton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Shaun McWilliams · Northampton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mitchell Pinnock · Northampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Theodore Archibald · Leyton Orient |
| 45' | ⚽ | Josh Eppiah · Northampton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jordan Brown · Leyton Orient |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jack Sowerby · Northampton |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Breyer Group Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Shadrach Ogie · Leyton Orient |
| 84' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 53.00 | 446.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1339.34 | 1406.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | 15.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| league points | 55.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |