← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 39% | 43% | 2.58 | value: +11% |
| Stevenage win | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Colchester −0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Colchester |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 49' | ⚽ | Luke Norris · Stevenage |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luke Norris · Stevenage |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Eastman · Colchester |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ben Coker · Stevenage |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luke Norris · Stevenage |
| 84' | 🟥 | Luke Norris · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Myles Kenlock · Colchester |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Charlie Carter · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 98.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1289.93 | 1223.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.09 | -32.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 45.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 56.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.15 | -1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 28.44 |
| state index | -0.24 | -1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |