← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 54% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.62 | fair |
| Carlisle win | 19% | 19% | 5.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Tranmere −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 48% | 2.27 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Kane Hemmings · Tranmere |
| 40' | 🟥 | Calum MacDonald · Tranmere |
| 43' | 🟨 | Kane Hemmings · Tranmere |
| 43' | 🟨 | Morgan Feeney · Carlisle |
| 43' | 🟨 | Dynel Simeu · Carlisle |
| 44' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Tranmere |
| 55' | ⚽ | Omari Patrick · Carlisle |
| 64' | 🟨 | Kelvin Mellor · Carlisle |
| 76' | ⚽ | Elliott Nevitt · Tranmere |
| 88' | 🟨 | Josh Dacres-Cogley · Tranmere |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| 🟨 |
| Peter Clarke · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Murphy · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kieron Morris · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tobi Sho-Silva · Carlisle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 305.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1383.09 | 1300.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.53 | 12.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| league points | 63.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 56.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.45 | 26.20 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |