← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N Hair
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs win | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Bradford win | 27% | 24% | 3.67 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Bradford −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 61% | 1.88 | value: +15% |
| Over | 49% | 39% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.