← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 40% | 37% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Rochdale win | 29% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rochdale −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Leyton Orient −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 42% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Breyer Group Stadium |