← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Tue, Mar 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Boyeson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Swindon win | 51% | 44% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.79 | value: +8% |
| Sutton win | 23% | 28% | 4.35 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Swindon −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sutton −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand