← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 52% | 62% | 1.85 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.55 | fair |
| Oldham win | 21% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham −0.75 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Swindon −0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Sam Hart · Oldham |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jordan Clarke · Oldham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Nicky Adams · Oldham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Carl Piergianni · Oldham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rob Hunt · Swindon |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dylan Fage · Oldham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ricky Aguiar · Swindon |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hallam Hope · Oldham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Stobbs · Oldham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Clarke · Oldham |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dion Conroy · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 254.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1379.27 | 1248.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.16 | 15.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 55.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 58.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 28.03 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |