← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Tue, Mar 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County win | 36% | 33% | 2.67 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 34% | 34% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Forest Green +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 64% | 1.84 | value: +17% |
| Over | 47% | 36% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Newport County |
| 32' | 🟨 | Aaron Lewis · Newport County |
| 38' | 🟨 | Scot Bennett · Newport County |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jamille Matt · Forest Green |
| 46' | 🟨 | Oliver Cooper · Newport County |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jack Aitchison · Forest Green |
| 69' | 🟨 | James Clarke · Newport County |
| 84' | 🟨 | James Clarke · Newport County |
| 84' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Newport County |
| 84' | 🟥 | James Clarke · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 151.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1390.16 | 1473.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.30 | -16.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 52.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 25.47 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |