← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County win | 58% | 62% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
| Oldham win | 17% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Oldham −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Sam Hart · Oldham |
| 11' | 🟨 | Scot Bennett · Newport County |
| 14' | ⚽ | Ryan Haynes · Newport County |
| 28' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dylan Bahamboula · Oldham |
| 40' | ⚽ | Dom Telford · Newport County |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mike Fondop · Oldham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Christopher Missilou · Oldham |
| 69' | 🟥 | Dylan Bahamboula · Oldham |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mike Fondop · Oldham |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 36 | Shots | 14 |
| 12 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.11 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| ⚽ |
| Mickey Demetriou · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 134.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1532.30 | 1383.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.89 | 18.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| league points | 47.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |