← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 36% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Barrow win | 33% | 36% | 3.07 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Barrow +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 57% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 43% | 2.56 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 17' | ⚽ | James Jones · Barrow |
| 25' | ⚽ | Stephen McLaughlin · Mansfield |
| 34' | 🟨 | Tom White · Barrow |
| 35' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Mansfield |
| 39' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Mansfield |
| 39' | 🟥 | Farrend Rawson · Mansfield |
| 44' | 🟨 | Oliver Hawkins · Mansfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Stirk · Mansfield |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ollie Banks · Barrow |
| 68' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Dunes Hotel Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 85' | 🟨 | Josh Kay · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 570.00 | 447.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1439.28 | 1516.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.95 | 42.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |