← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Tue, Jan 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 54% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.70 | fair |
| Colchester win | 20% | 22% | 5.13 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sutton −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 47% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Owura Edwards · Colchester |
| 9' | ⚽ | Isaac Olaofe · Sutton |
| 21' | 🟨 | Tom Dallison · Colchester |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Freddie Sears · Colchester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alistair Smith · Sutton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Craig Eastmond · Sutton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Freddie Sears · Colchester |
| 64' | ⚽ | Isaac Olaofe · Sutton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Emyr Huws · Colchester |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Colchester |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sutton | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | VBS Community Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Will Randall · Sutton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1023.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1457.41 | 1243.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.60 | -45.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 40.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.23 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 27.30 |
| state index | -0.11 | -1.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |