← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Tue, Jan 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Forest Green win | 66% | 66% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.59 | fair |
| Colchester win | 13% | 16% | 7.59 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Colchester −1.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Forest Green −1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.89 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Fully Charged New Lawn |