← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 38% | 38% | 2.56 | fair |
| Northampton win | 34% | 32% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Northampton +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Shaun McWilliams · Northampton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jack Sowerby · Northampton |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 49' | 🟨 | Rob Hunt · Swindon |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 51' | ⚽ | Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 55' | ⚽ | Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 60' | ⚽ | Tyreece Simpson · Swindon |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ali Koiki · Northampton |
| 66' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| ⚽ |
| Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kaine Kesler · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 184.00 | 334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1559.78 | 1587.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.67 | 31.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 53.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | -2.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.47 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |