← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 56% | 52% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.22 | value: +11% |
| Oldham win | 20% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Oldham +0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 51% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 13' | ⚽ | Jack Aitchison · Forest Green |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jamille Matt · Forest Green |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jamille Matt · Forest Green |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jamie Bowden · Oldham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
| 55' | ⚽ | Hallam Hope · Oldham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Oldham |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jack Stobbs · Oldham |
| 71' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oldham | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Boundary Park |
| 🟨 |
| Jordan Clarke · Oldham |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Kane Wilson · Oldham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Stobbs · Oldham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 40.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1374.80 | 1610.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.75 | 42.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |