← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Boyeson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 62% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 16% | 20% | 6.00 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Leyton Orient −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Shadrach Ogie · Leyton Orient |
| 28' | 🟨 | Kwesi Appiah · Crawley Town |
| 32' | 🟨 | Harry Smith · Leyton Orient |
| 32' | ⚽ | George Francomb · Crawley Town |
| 37' | 🟨 | Will Ferry · Crawley Town |
| 51' | 🟨 | Archie Davies · Crawley Town |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Glenn Morris · Leyton Orient |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kwesi Appiah · Crawley Town |
| 73' | 🟨 | Craig Clay · Leyton Orient |
| 82' | 🟨 | Daniel Happe · Leyton Orient |
| 87' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | The Breyer Group Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Connor Wood · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darren Pratley · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darren Pratley · Leyton Orient |
| 90' | 🟥 | Darren Pratley · Leyton Orient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 224.00 | 741.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1527.53 | 1423.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.68 | -9.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | -1.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |