← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 36% | 36% | 2.69 | fair |
| Barrow win | 35% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Barrow +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ben Gladwin · Swindon |
| 38' | 🟨 | Connor Brown · Barrow |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Ollie Banks · Barrow |
| 71' | 🟨 | Robbie Gotts · Barrow |
| 76' | 🟨 | Harry McKirdy · Swindon |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ollie Banks · Barrow |
| 84' | 🟨 | Paul Farman · Barrow |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jayden Mitchell-Lawson · Swindon |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Gordon · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Jones · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Dunes Hotel Stadium |
| Dion Conroy · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 528.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1426.33 | 1584.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.51 | 1.24 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 19.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |